UNCERTAIN ABOUT RESEARCH ON UNCERTAINTY: CONFIDENCE JUDGMENTS IN DYNAMIC TASK ENVIRONMENTS
Morony, S., Macquarie University, Australia
Despite decades of research into subjective uncertainty, or confidence judgments, to date this aspect of decision-making has been studied within fairly limited contexts - namely, static, laboratory based tasks. One feature of real-world tasks that is clearly missing in forced-choice laboratory paper and pencil tasks is that of system dynamics, or the changeable nature of the decision environment. System dynamics have received much attention in the area of computer simulated complex problem solving however, possibly for reasons of experimental simplicity, have been neglected within the study of uncertainty judgments. A further limitation of the existing research is a reliance on frequentist assumptions, which may not reflect the way decisions are made in the real world (Keren, 1997). What is needed is an extension of the paradigm that includes an appropriate methodology to study subjective uncertainty in complex, dynamic environments. This paper outlines the development of an alternative method, which offers researchers and practitioners an important step forward in understanding human judgment in dynamic situations. Potential applications include, but are not limited to, the training and development of operators of complex machinery and systems.